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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 482 WTPZ45 KNHC 100248 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100247 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move over the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next hour or so, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Friday as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). A weather station at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A Weatherflow station near San Jose del Cabo recently reported a pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the coast within the hurricane warning area at this time and should continue to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100247 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 109.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100247 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 63 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) LA PAZ 64 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LORETO 34 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 75.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown until the system dissipates Friday night or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening of the winds is expected before the system dissipates. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Papin
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