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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-09 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north side. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than forecast. Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-09 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 075 FONT13 KNHC 092037 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-09 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-09 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092036 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 36A
2021-09-09 20:00:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091800 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY PASSING BY BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 62.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 62.0 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at Flatts Village, Bermuda. The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however brief heavy rain from these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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