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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-09-09 19:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091752 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...STRENGTHENING OLAF EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 108.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located by visible satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula this evening and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before the eyewall of Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and evening. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the next hour or so, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 36
2021-09-09 17:00:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091500 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 Larry continues to feature a banding-type eye on satellite images, and the eye is clearly evident on the Bermuda radar. Satellite and radar data also show a moat-like area of low precipitation between the eyewall and a large band of convection farther removed from the center. This outer band is expected to affect Bermuda or the waters just east of the island over the next several hours. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has changed little since yesterday. Flight-level winds from the aircraft were as high as 95 kt, but the peak SFMR-observed surface winds were only 69 kt. This again indicates that in this case the strong winds aloft are not being transported to the surface as effectively as in a typical hurricane at lower latitudes. Blending these data results in an intensity estimate of 80 kt for this advisory. This is just a little higher than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is gradually turning to the right and the initial motion is 340/14 kt. Larry is currently moving around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic, and is passing east of Bermuda. The flow on the east side of a strong mid-level trough moving from the northeastern United States to Atlantic Canada will cause Larry to turn toward the northeast and accelerate in 24 to 48 hours. Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 36 to 48 hours, and then move over the far north Atlantic around the end of the forecast period. There is very little change to the NHC track forecast from the previous advisory, which remains close to the various consensus model solutions. Larry is likely remain over warm waters with low shear for another 24 hours or so. Thus the system will probably maintain much of its intensity into Friday. By Friday night and over the weekend, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should cause weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the hurricane could slow the weakening process. The official intensity forecast keeps Larry at hurricane-force through 48 hours even as it undergoes extratropical transition. In 3-4 days, the global models show Larry merging with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected there today, along with a risk of coastal flooding. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions are storm surge are possible in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a hurricane watch is in effect. Interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 34.5N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 44.8N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 51.3N 49.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 57.0N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z 61.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2021-09-09 16:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 651 FONT12 KNHC 091454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 36(36) 55(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 61(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 45(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 36
2021-09-09 16:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 419 WTNT32 KNHC 091454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA SOON WHILE LARRY MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 61.6W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 61.6 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however brief heavy rain from these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 36
2021-09-09 16:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 420 WTNT22 KNHC 091454 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 61.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 61.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.8N 56.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.3N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 61.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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