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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 35
2021-09-09 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 652 WTNT42 KNHC 090846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 This morning's conventional satellite presentation appears to indicate a more banding eye feature rather than a previously noted irregular-type eye. A timely Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) image and an AMSR2 lower frequency pass, however, clearly shows the majority of the eyewall intact. The primary curved band wrapping around the west semicircle consists of -78 Celsius cloud tops. The western portion of the eyewall is now discernible on the Bermuda Weather Service Radar. The initial intensity is held at possibly generous 85 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. A 53rd Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this morning and will provide new information on Larry's intensity. The 0000 UTC GFS global model sounding revealed 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly effective shear impinging on the western half of the cyclone while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis showed 20-25 kt of bulk shear in the same area. This, along with a significantly higher statically stable surrounding environment (about 55 percent RH), has disrupted the inner core and more than likely created a SW to NW tilt with height. Larry is expected to change little in strength during the next 12 to 24 hours, then gradually weaken as the cyclone traverses sharply decreasing cooler water north of the gulf stream while the southwesterly shear increases significantly. The dynamic forcing, however, associated with a mid-latitude major shortwave trough near Atlantic Canada should aid in maintaining Larry as a hurricane while it passes near or over Newfoundland. Afterwards, Larry is expected to transition into a large extratropical cyclone, as indicated by the FSU Cyclone Phase Diagram. By early next week, Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/14 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged. Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda later today while slowly turning north-northwestward and northward. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Larry should accelerate generally northeastward in response to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. The wind radii were decreased slightly in all quadrants based on earlier METOP A and B scatterometer passes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later today, Tropical storm conditions are expected today, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for southeastern Newfoundland. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 35
2021-09-09 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 61.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger baroclinic system east of Greenland Monday. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern New Foundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2021-09-09 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 090842 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 89(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 66(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 36(36) 10(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 41 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BERMUDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 35
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090842 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..430NE 320SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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