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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-10 10:44:05| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-10 10:43:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Location: 13.0°N 100.8°W Max sustained: 35 mph Moving: WNW at 8 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-10 10:43:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-08-10 07:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100543 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to continue passing near the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-10 04:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 074 WTNT41 KNHC 100250 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 The disturbance is now very near the Leeward Islands and it is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of those islands during the next several hours. Satellite and radar data indicate that deep convection continues to gradually organize in curved bands across the northern half of the circulation, but the system still seems to lack a well-defined center. Therefore, the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The system is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The main steering feature for the system will continue to be the subtropical ridge that is situated to its north across the central and western Atlantic. The flow on the south side of the ridge should keep the depression moving relatively briskly to the west-northwest during the next couple of days, taking it across the Leeward Islands overnight, near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Beyond that time, the storm is forecast to gradually slow down, when it nears the southwestern portion of the ridge, as it moves near Cuba and the Bahamas late this week. By the weekend, most of the models show the depression reaching a weakness in the ridge, which will likely cause a gradual turn to the right near the Florida Keys or southern Florida. The models are in quite good agreement, especially during the next 3 or 4 days, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Users are reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively. The disturbance is currently in conducive conditions for intensification with the cyclone currently over fairly warm 28 C waters and in low wind shear conditions. The only negative factor for the storm is some dry air in its vicinity. Overall, these environmental factors, and the model guidance, support strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, but the potential land interaction with Puerto Rico could limit the amount of intensification. By Wednesday, the potential land interaction with the mountainous island of Hispaniola and an increase in westerly shear should cause some weakening. However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA models, which are typically the most skillful aids. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is of low confidence since the cyclone's future strength will be quite dependent on the exact track and the degree of land interaction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Leeward Islands tonight, and tropical storm conditions are possible there. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.1N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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