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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 112.9W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently measured by a Mexican Navy weather observation site on Clarion Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-08-10 01:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092330 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-09 23:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092101 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon, with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from Barbados and Martinique. ASCAT data from this morning revealed a sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation. However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary convective mass. These trends suggest the system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system west-northwestward through the forecast period. Although there is high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack of a well-defined center. Exactly where the center forms will have some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of the exact track, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas. The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island could allow the system to stay more intact. An additional caveat beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the shear will increase given differences between the more favorable ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-09 22:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 092058 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT CROIX 34 X 22(22) 17(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 9 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MARTINIQUE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN
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