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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-09 22:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092056 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 59.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 112.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 112.2 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 61(62) 9(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a generalized mean cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle, with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is in good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance. Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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