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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-09 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 320 WTPZ41 KNHC 090836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous, however. The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus, Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22 deg C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-09 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 64(70) 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 274 WTPZ21 KNHC 090834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-09 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Satellite images indicate that Kevin has been relatively steady in strength over the past several hours. Deep convection is most organized near the center and over the western half of the circulation, with microwave images showing the center partially exposed. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of northeasterly wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are largely unchanged and range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is once again held at 50 kt. Kevin is moving westward at a relatively slow pace of 7 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast rationale. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Kevin moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. The track models have trended a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Despite being over warm 29 degree C waters and embedded in a moist air mass, northeasterly shear has limited the amount of strengthening during the past day or so. Since the shear is expected to continue, Kevin is only forecast to strengthen slowly during the next day or two. After that time, however, progressively cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period when it is expected to be over cool 22 C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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