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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 ...HILDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 134.1W ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 134.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this slightly slower motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected and the remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough of low pressure on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hilda. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061434 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-06 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061433 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-08-06 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060839 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been reduced to a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds overnight with no organized deep convection. There has not been any recent scatterometer data to aid determining Hilda's intensity, but a blend of recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. If Hilda fails to redevelop organized deep convection soon, an unlikely prospect since sea-surface temperatures under the depression are now around 22 C, the cyclone should soon become a remnant low, possibly as early as later this morning. Complete dissipation of the remnant low is expected by this weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest at 300/10 kt. This heading is expected to continue until dissipation as the system moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, though is a bit slower, following the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-06 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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