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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 3 43(46) 25(71) 5(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 110W 50 X 8( 8) 20(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 17(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 51(58) 19(77) X(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 29(56) 1(57) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-07 16:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071451 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just below the Decay SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global models solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-07 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071450 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 12(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 15(29) 2(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 24(70) 1(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 35(53) 1(54) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 105.5W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and could become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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