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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-07-20 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia is a rapidly weakening tropical cyclone. The system has been reduced to a low- to mid-level cloud swirl in satellite imagery, with no deep and organized convection near its center since about 0100 UTC. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show several 35-kt vectors in the northern semicircle of the compact cyclone, which supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt with this advisory. The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. It is expected to turn slightly more west-southwestward later today and maintain this heading for the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Felicia will move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. Felicia is embedded within a dry and stable airmass over SSTs of around 25 deg C, and the cyclone will move under the influence of strong northwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or so. Thus, it appears very unlikely that Felicia will be able to sustain any organized convection near its center, even as it moves deeper into the tropics over slightly warmer SSTs. The official NHC intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and weakens Felicia to a tropical depression in 12 h, and to a remnant low by 36 h. However, this could occur even sooner based on recent trends and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough by Thursday night as it passes well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 25
2021-07-20 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 136.3W ABOUT 1265 MI...2030 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Felicia is forecast to become a tropical depression on Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-07-20 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-07-20 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-07-20 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 423 WTPZ41 KNHC 200237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass. After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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