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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 312035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 311449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 18 72(90) 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 1 47(48) 24(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 120W 64 X 20(20) 22(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 33(63) 2(65) X(65) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 029 WTPZ43 KNHC 311449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda is strengthening quickly this morning. Satellite images show an eye feature trying to form, and convection has deepened and become increasingly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates supported raising the initial intensity to 55 kt at 12Z, and since Hilda continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt for this advisory. This makes Hilda just below hurricane strength. The current favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs should continue to allow Hilda to intensify during the next day or so. In addition, given that Hilda now has a tight inner core, rapid intensification (RI) is a decent possibility, and the SHIPS RI index now shows a 30 percent chance of that occurring during the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is above than the previous one in the short term and it lies at the high end of the model guidance. The long term forecast is largely similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east that could cause slow downs and wobbles in the future track. There is a fair amount of spread among the models, especially at the longer range forecast times, but the latest consensus models are right on top of the previous track. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 311449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 116.7W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 116.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady or rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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