je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 802 WTPZ24 KNHC 310233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-31 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better organized during the past several hours, with the low-level center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with the bulk of the outflow to the south. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear. Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h. After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water. However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than currently forecast. The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to erratic motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...HILDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 114.6W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 114.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 021 FOPZ13 KNHC 310232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 25 3(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 10N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 18(18) 67(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 49(50) 9(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 38(48) 7(55) X(55) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 2(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [398] [399] [400] [401] [402] [403] [404] [405] [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] next »