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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-31 10:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression remains poorly organized this morning. Deep convection remains limited, and recent scatterometer data show that the circulation is elongated from east to west. The initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, which could be generous based on the latest ASCAT data. As mentioned in the previous advisory, the confidence in the track and intensity forecast for the depression is quite low due to the current lack of organization of the system, and the potential for some interaction with Tropical Storm Hilda located to its northeast. The ASCAT data was helpful in pinpointing the center location overnight, and the latest fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving just south of due west or 265/5 kt. The track guidance generally agrees on a slow west or west-southwest heading over the next 12-24 hours followed by a west or west-northwest motion through 48-60 hours. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge with the GFS showing a binary interaction of the depression and Hilda by days 4 and 5. Most of the remainder of the guidance keeps enough separation between the systems that the depression continues generally moving westward or west-northwestward through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and is slightly slower than the previous official forecast. Although the depression is located over warm water, moderate easterly shear and dry air entrainment have prevented strengthening since genesis occurred. Given the current poor organization of the system and the marginal environment, only slow strengthening is indicated over the next few days. Another plausible scenario is that the system fails to produce organization deep convection within the next 12 to 24 hours, and it degenerates into a broad low pressure area along the ITCZ. Given this uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly and is in best agreement with the IVCN intensity aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 12.3N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 310835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 127.0W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 127.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Sunday. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 310835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 127.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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