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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-07-31 16:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 798 WTPZ44 KNHC 311447 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has become increasingly elongated west-to-east since the previous advisory. Although deep convection has increased somewhat near the center, with cloud tops now colder than -70C, the convection isn't organized very well. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt until new ASCAT data arrives this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is 270/04 kt. The latest NHC track guidance is in decent agreement on the depression moving in a slow westward direction for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the ridge to north of the cyclone weakens slightly. By around 72 hours, some binary interaction between the depression and rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east, is expected. However, the degree of interaction varies widely among the models. The GFS is the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF being the weakest, showing little if any interaction and keeps the cyclone moving generally westward through 120 h; the other global and regional models lie somewhere in between these two extremes. For now, the new official NHC track forecast was only nudged slightly northward, and lies inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope near the TVCE consensus model. The depression's future intensity and existence depends heavily on the track over the next 5 days. A more westward motion would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a better upper-level flow regime. In contrast, a sharp northward motion, as per the GFS solution, would place the system over colder water and within strong vertical wind shear. Another negative factor is the effect of intensifying Hilda to the east, which has started to draw in the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial inflow away from TD-9E. This deflection of the low-level flow eastward away from the depression could result in the cyclone's cyclone getting stretched out/elongated east-to-west even further, which would induce weakening or even dissipation of the cyclone. For now, the previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory until the track model guidance comes into better agreement, and the interactive effects of Tropical Storm Hilda become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 12.1N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 4

2021-07-31 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 891 WTPZ34 KNHC 311446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DAWDLING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 127.6W ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 127.6 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-07-31 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 890 WTPZ24 KNHC 311446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2021-07-31 16:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 311446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-07-31 10:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A prominent convective band now wraps about halfway around the southeast to west side of Hilda's center, and another band is taking shape to the north of the center. With the improved organization, Dvorak estimates increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 0520 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirmed that indeed maximum winds are about 45 kt. This is being set as Hilda's initial intensity, although it could be a little conservative since objective ADT estimates have trended higher than that since 0600 UTC. A mid-tropospheric ridge currently extends from northern Mexico westward across the Baja California peninsula to about 120W and is steering Hilda west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. Although this ridge is expected to build westward and keep Hilda on a west-northwestward course, potential interactions with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and another low pressure area to the east could cause the storm to slow down over the next 3 days and oscillate a bit around that general heading. There is slightly more spread among the track models than is typical, with the HWRF a notable southern outlier and the GFS and HMON models having some of the faster solutions due to greater interaction with T.D. Nine-E. That being said, the overall track guidance has trended a little slower and farther south on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has therefore been adjusted in that direction from the previous forecast, lying close to the TVCE multi-model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA consensus aid. Hilda is currently in a light-shear regime and over sea surface temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius, so continued strengthening is anticipated in the short term with Hilda likely to reach hurricane strength by tonight or early Sunday. However, global models are suggesting that the shear may increase out of the east during the next 24 hours, and then Hilda will be near cooler waters in 2 to 3 days. Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite. Hilda is expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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