je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-07-04 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 1(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 19(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 26(47) 8(55) X(55) X(55) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 29(36) 2(38) X(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 6(36) X(36) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 24(28) 13(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 20(20) 49(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 2 43(45) X(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAMAGUEY 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 8 X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 26 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTEGO BAY 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 15
2021-07-04 04:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti north of Port Au Prince has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur Sunday night and Monday when Elsa will be moving over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was estimated to be 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti tonight and on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-07-04 04:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 75.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 14A
2021-07-04 01:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032356 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 ...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 74.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-07-03 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 810 WTNT45 KNHC 032053 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data. The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope. In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re- intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] [465] [466] [467] [468] [469] [470] [471] [472] next »