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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 22A
2021-07-06 01:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052351 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA PASSING JUST EAST OF HAVANA CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 81.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-07-05 22:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 339 WTNT45 KNHC 052047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains. Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will provide a better assessment of the system's intensity. The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance. Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-07-05 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 617 FONT15 KNHC 052047 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KEY WEST FL 34 54 8(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) KEY WEST FL 50 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 2 34(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) VENICE FL 34 1 41(42) 25(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) VENICE FL 50 X 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 1 13(14) 47(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 4( 4) 45(49) 13(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HAVANA 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 22
2021-07-05 22:46:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 655 WTNT35 KNHC 052046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key and Florida Bay has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-07-05 22:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 974 WTNT25 KNHC 052046 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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