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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 20A
2021-07-05 13:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA NEARING LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 80.7W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Camaguey A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 80.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-07-05 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-07-05 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 050832 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) X(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 1(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) X(32) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 2(35) X(35) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 30(40) 1(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 1(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 2 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 2 46(48) 14(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) KEY WEST FL 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 1 4( 5) 35(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 36(51) 7(58) X(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 10 43(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HAVANA 50 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CIENFUEGOS 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 20
2021-07-05 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 79.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Camaguey A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-07-05 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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