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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-07-04 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 1(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 1(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 18(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 24(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 18(41) 1(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 3(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 3(40) X(40) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 6(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) X(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 26(26) 30(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 9 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) CAMAGUEY 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 14 X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) KINGSTON 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 16
2021-07-04 10:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA VERY NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THERE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 75.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 75.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-07-04 10:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 105SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 75.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-07-04 07:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040534 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 75.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will remain near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti during the next few hours, and on Jamaica and across eastern and central Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands by tonight and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba today and Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today and Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-07-04 05:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there. The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected consensus models. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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