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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-09-29 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 57.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 60.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 40.8N 52.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 56.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-09-29 04:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290234 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 Satellite images suggest that Sam has strengthened. The eyewall of the hurricane has become more intense, with a warmer eye noted during the past several hours since the last reconnaissance aircraft departed. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 120 kt, a little above what the previous aircraft mission from this afternoon supported. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to fly through Sam in a few hours for a better look at the intensity. Sam is forecast to move into an area with somewhat lower wind shear and higher ocean heat content by late Wednesday. In addition, the hurricane will likely be moving a little faster, which decreases the upwelling potential under the storm. These factors lead me to believe Sam isn't quite done intensifying, and could reach another peak sometime late Wednesday or Thursday. The one fly-in-the- ointment to this forecast is another eyewall replacement cycle potentially beginning, although recent microwave data doesn't give that impression. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the last one during the first couple of days, on the higher side of the guidance. A more consistent weakening trend is expected late week, due to cooler SSTs and increasing shear, and no significant changes were made to the official forecast at long range. The hurricane continues moving northwestward at about 8 kt. Models are locked into this track continuing for the next day or two at a faster pace around the southwestern portion of a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Sam should turn northward on Friday and northeastward this weekend, likely a fair distance east of Bermuda, due to a large mid-latitude trough moving off of the United States east coast. Model guidance remains in close agreement on almost all of the forecast, and the only significant change from the last advisory is an eastward adjustment on Day 5 due to guidance suggesting that Sam gets shunted more eastward by the trough, rather than captured by it. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.4N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 19.1N 56.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 20.2N 58.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 26.4N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 29.1N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 35.0N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 26
2021-09-29 04:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...SAM SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WITH 140-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 55.6W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 55.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-09-29 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 290 WTNT23 KNHC 290233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.2N 58.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 35.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 25
2021-09-28 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 55.0W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 55.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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