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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-30 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 301452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-30 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 28.9W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 28.9 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Victor could be near hurricane strength on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-30 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 28.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 28.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-09-30 13:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301144 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...INTENSE HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 59.5W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will continue to pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-09-30 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 113 WTNT43 KNHC 300856 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam is a very impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery this morning. The 25-nm-wide eye remains very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops around -65C. The outflow is also well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that performed three eyewall penetrations overnight has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 139 kt in the northeastern, southeastern, and eastern eyewall, and peak SFMR surface winds of 119 kt. These data still support an initial wind speed of 125 kt. Sam's minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars since the NOAA aircraft mission last evening. The latest estimated pressure from dropsonde data gathered by the Air Force is 937 mb. NOAA buoy 41044 has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 68 kt with a gust to 86 kt in the northeastern eyewall of Sam. The buoy has also reported peak seas of 40 ft. Sam could still strengthen a little today as it continues to move over a warm ocean eddy and remains in low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall cycles however, could cause some fluctuations in intensity. After 48 hours, gradually decreasing SSTs and ocean heat content are likely to cause a more definitive weakening trend, with a faster rate of weakening likely after day 3. Sam is forecast to complete its extratropical transition by day 5, and it is predicted by the global model guidance to become a large and powerful extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Sam is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. Sam will move northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that time, Sam is predicted to turn northeastward between the ridge and a large mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. As that trough lifts northeastward by day 3, Sam is forecast to continue on a northeastward heading, but it is not likely to accelerate as much as a typical recurving tropical cyclone over the north-central Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spread after that time. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have come into somewhat better agreement at days 3 through 5, and the NHC track forecast is near the consensus of those typically reliable models. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.0N 60.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.1N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 35.5N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 38.7N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 44.3N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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