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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-26 04:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 260249 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-26 04:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260249 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT SAM HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 49.0W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely into early next week. Sam remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-26 04:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260247 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 49.0W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 120SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 49.0W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.7N 51.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.4N 52.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 54.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 55.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.1N 58.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-25 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252044 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has continued to consist of just a swirl of low-level clouds since last night. Although a convective band persists a couple hundred miles northeast of the low center, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Strong west-southwesterly wind shear should prevent any regeneration of convection near the center. All of the global models show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Sunday morning. Teresa has been moving eastward or 090/4 kt during the past 12 hours. A turn to the northeast is expected within the next couple of hours as the cyclone moves in the southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The northeastward motion should continue until the low dissipates Sunday morning. Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 34.4N 64.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0600Z 35.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-25 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 252041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...TERESA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 64.3W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Teresa. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen/Latto
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