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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-27 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SAM HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 50.8W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 50.8 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, along with a gradual increase in forward speed beginning around midweek. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, slow weakening is forecast. However, Sam is still expected to remain a major hurricane through midweek. Sam remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from the aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-09-27 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 270248 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-27 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270248 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 51.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.2N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 53.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 55.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N 56.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-26 23:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262134 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SMALL BUT FEROCIOUS SAM STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 50.5W ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, along with a gradual increase in forward speed commencing by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Sam is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-26 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 Sam has found a way to strengthen some more today. The ring of intense convection surrounding the 15-n-mi-diameter eye has expanded in size over the past several hours, while cloud tops colder than -70C still completely surround the center. An earlier GMI microwave overpass revealed very strong eyewall convection tightly wrapped around the small eye, a feature oftentimes seen with intense hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain T6.5/127 kt. However, the UW-CIMSS ADT estimate has recently increased to T6.6/130 kt. Based on the expansion of the ring of convection and a blend of these Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 130 kt for this advisory. Sam remains compact, with winds of tropical storm force extending only 70 n mi from the center. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Sam and will provide more detailed intensity data. It would not take much further expansion of the convection and cooling of the cloud tops over the inner-most core of Sam for it to become a rare Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Although plausible given the ideal environmental conditions over the next couple of days, this strengthening is not explicitly forecast to occur. The only factors within the next 2-3 days that could cause Sam to weaken would be an eyewall replacement cycle or the upwelling of cooler waters due to the hurricane's relatively slow forward motion. By 72 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should cause gradual weakening. However, given the current strength of Sam, the new forecast calls for it to remain a major hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was increased by 5 kt through 60 h due to the change in the initial intensity and remains on the high end of the guidance through that time. At 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) model. Sam has been wobbling a little north-northwestward and has slowed down over the past few hours, but the 12-h-average motion is about 305/06 kt. A subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane should steer it northwestward for the next 3-4 days. By late Thursday, Sam is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge and turn north-northwestward and begin to increase its forward speed as the cyclone starts to get caught up in the southerly flow between the ridge and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The various track model guidance is in better agreement today compared to yesterday, especially in the day 3-5 time frame. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus track model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 14.2N 50.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.5N 52.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.2N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 18.1N 55.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 19.2N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.1N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 26.6N 62.9W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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