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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 301455 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301455 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam continues to look quite impressive on satellite images, with a 20-25 n mi wide eye surrounded by very deep convection. The system's convective banding features and upper-level anticyclonic outflow also remain well-defined, with particularly strong outflow to the northwest and north. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed significantly since earlier this morning, so the advisory intensity will remain at 125 kt. Interestingly, aircraft observations show that Sam has been a little stronger than indicated by satellite-derived intensity estimates, which underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later today. Sam should continue to move over waters of high oceanic heat content and within a low-shear atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours or so. Thus, it could still strengthen a little today and tonight. By 48 hours, decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should lead to a gradual weakening trend. Around day 5, global model fields suggest that Sam will be merging with a baroclinic zone and transition into a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model prediction. The hurricane is moving a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 320/11 kt. During the next couple of days, a gradual turn toward the north is likely as Sam rounds the western end of a large subtropical anticyclone over the eastern and central Atlantic. Thereafter, Sam is forecast to move generally northeastward in the flow between the anticyclone and a trough near Atlantic Canada. The NHC forecast is very similar to a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF predictions, with a little bit of smoothing around days 3-4. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.6N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.4N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 32.7N 60.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 34.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 36.9N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 40.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 44.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 301454 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 60.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 60.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.9N 59.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.9N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 40.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 44.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301454 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO CAUSE LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 60.0W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 60.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-30 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301454 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor remains a sprawling tropical storm with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The associated convection remains most organized on the storm's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates are largely unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B pass from around 12Z showed maximum winds in the 35-40 kt range. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that the wind field is quite broad with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 90 n mi north of the center. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for another day or so as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The model tracks have converged compared to yesterday, but the ECMWF remains the slowest and westernmost solution and the HWRF is still the easternmost model. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids and is in fair agreement with the GFS. The storm has about another 36 hours in conducive environmental conditions of very low wind shear, a moist mid-level airmass, and warm 28-29 degree C SSTs. Therefore, intensification seems likely during that time period, but given the broad nature of the system's wind field, Victor will likely gain strength slowly during that time period. However, in a couple of days, the models show a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one. It should be noted that although this forecast no longer explicitly shows Victor becoming a hurricane, it could occur in a day or two before conditions become hostile. This forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 9.5N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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