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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-26 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SMALL BUT FEROCIOUS SAM STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 50.5W ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, along with a gradual increase in forward speed commencing by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Sam is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-09-26 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 262034 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-26 16:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 261443 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-26 16:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 50.2W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 50.2 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-26 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 55.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
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