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Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 3
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 ...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 108.5W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the west by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-09 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091454 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt. This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by recent microwave imagery. Since earlier scatterometer data indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength, and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named. Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017. Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional strengthening. The official forecast generally follows the numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory. The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5. Andres should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the model guidance suite. This also close to the latest latest corrected consensus, or HCCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 2
2021-05-09 16:51:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2021 EAST PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 107.9W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 107.9 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward by late Tuesday, and continue that general motion on Wednesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-05-09 16:51:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091451 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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