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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192032 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent, organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25 kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease, and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36 hours, per the latest global model guidance. Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192032 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 ...OVER COOLER WATER, POLO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 121.3W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 121.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192031 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but none have lasted for more than about an hour or two. ASCAT-C data received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0. For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be a 30-kt tropical depression. Polo has not maintained enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this afternoon. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24 hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates. This pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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