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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-18 15:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-18 15:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 116.0W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 116.0 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday. Polo should degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-18 15:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Iota Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-18 11:17:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181017 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CORRECTED FOR NO INTERMEDIATE CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 88.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Iota Public Advisory Number 20
2020-11-18 11:16:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181015 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Iota Advisory Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Corrected Next Advisory section ...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 88.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Iota will move across El Salvador before the system dissipates later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system later today. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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