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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-11-19 09:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-19 09:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 118.3W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 118.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or on Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later tonight or on Thursday, and Polo is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h. The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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