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Tropical Depression Andres Public Advisory Number 7
2021-05-10 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...WEAKENING ANDRES NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.8W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-05-10 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-05-10 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning. Early visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst of deep convection. Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the eastern semicircle overnight. A blend of the objective ADT and SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt. Hopefully, scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better assess the intensity of Andres. The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now 330/05 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected today as Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest a weakening trend is imminent. Andres is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-05-10 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101443 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 6
2021-05-10 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...DISORGANIZED ANDRES LIKELY TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 109.4W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 109.4 West. Andres is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today, and Andres is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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