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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 51
2020-11-13 03:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130244 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly confined to the northern side of the system and in patches associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory. The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic influences. Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast. Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 234 WTNT34 KNHC 130243 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...CENTER OF ETA JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 79.0W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 79.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this heading with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S. coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could intensify a little as a non-tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. An observation at Folly Beach Pier in South Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rain bands extending southwest of Etas center will produce an additional 1 to 2 inches over portions of South Florida tonight, where isolated maximum storm total accumulations will range between 20 and 25 inches. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible overnight, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the southeastern United States coast through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 981 FONT14 KNHC 130243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 220 WTNT24 KNHC 130243 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-12 21:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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