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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-22 16:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:50:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:50:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 42
2020-09-22 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a remnant low by as early as this evening. Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 35.0N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 42
2020-09-22 16:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 23.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 22.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
2020-09-22 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 35.0, -22.3 with movement E at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 42
2020-09-22 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 22.3W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low within the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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