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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
2020-09-22 10:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 34.7, -23.7 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 41
2020-09-22 10:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 23.7W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or east-northeast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-22 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:37:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:37:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 40
2020-09-22 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12 hours. An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again. The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical. Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus. Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters lie ahead along the forecast track. This, along with moderate vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 33.9N 25.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2020-09-22 04:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 220234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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