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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)

2020-09-22 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... As of 3:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 33.9, -25.3 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 40

2020-09-22 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday. Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 40

2020-09-22 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 25.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Graphics

2020-09-16 17:23:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:23:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:23:43 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 39

2020-09-16 16:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161440 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 64 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

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