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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-15 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE WEAKENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Paulette was located near 39.5, -55.0 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 36
2020-09-15 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE WEAKENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 55.0W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion with a further increase in speed is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the east coast of the United States into Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-15 16:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:39:51 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-09-15 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151437 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-15 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD AT AN EVEN FASTER PACE... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Paulette was located near 38.3, -57.9 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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