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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 52
2018-10-09 10:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090856 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...LESLIE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 43.9W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 43.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower motion toward the southeast is anticipated over the next day or two, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 52
2018-10-09 10:55:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090855 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 43.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 43.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.8N 43.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.2N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.4N 40.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 33.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.5N 23.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 17.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 51
2018-10-09 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090240 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 Satellite and microwave data show that Leslie continues to have a small central dense overcast, with the latest microwave images suggesting that Leslie is forming a mid-level eye. Although deep convection has recently decreased somewhat, all of the 00Z intensity estimates were 55 kt or higher, so the wind speed is set to that value. There is no significant change in initial motion- still southeastward at about 12 kt. Leslie should slow down and turn toward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. A new trough moves into the eastern Atlantic after that time, which should eject Leslie generally east-northeastward to the south of the Azores. Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that trough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range or drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal. The recent GFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower, more in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models. The new NHC forecast follows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the consensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward adjustments could be required on later advisories. Leslie is forecast to move across marginally warm waters within a moderate shear but a more moist environment over the next few days. These conditions are likely to support slow strengthening, and model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario. Only minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC forecast remains between the intensity consensus and corrected- consensus aids. By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters should weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to transition into a post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.9N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 29.6N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 28.1N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 27.9N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 30.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 33.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-09 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 02:40:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 03:22:10 GMT
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leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2018-10-09 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 090238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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