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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-09 16:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 14:42:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 15:22:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 53
2018-10-09 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Recent Dvorak fixes and ASCAT data indicate that Leslie's maximum winds remain around 55 kt. Although the winds have not yet increased, the surface center of the tropical storm has become more embedded within its cold cloud tops and several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the cyclone is beginning to establish an inner-core. Strengthening is therefore still expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow. The tropical storm is currently moving south-southeastward at around 11 kt, and the models are in good agreement that a south-southeastward to southward motion will continue for the next 24 h or so. Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and the high uncertainty in the forecast. The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post- tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However, until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it continues meandering over the northern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 31.3N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 29.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.5N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 28.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 32.0N 31.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 33.5N 22.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 33.5N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2018-10-09 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 091439 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-09 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 31.3, -43.5 with movement SSE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 53
2018-10-09 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091439 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...LESLIE HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 43.5W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 43.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane again on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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