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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 57
2018-10-10 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 101445 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 57
2018-10-10 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101444 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 240SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 42.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.8N 41.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.6N 36.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 31.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 23.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.5N 22.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 26.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 42.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-10 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 08:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 56
2018-10-10 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100834 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Leslie has a large and ragged banded eye feature with deep convection most organized over the northern semicircle. Since the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Leslie has another day or two to strengthen while it remains in low wind shear conditions and over marginally warm waters. After that time, an increase in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is possible that Leslie could become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but confidence is not high on that occurring. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and it lies at the high end of the model guidance. Leslie is now moving southward at 9 kt in the flow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A slower south- southeastward motion is expected during the day today as the trough pulls away. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight as another trough approaches Leslie from the northwest, and that motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early this weekend. After that time, the models are coming into better agreement in showing Leslie being left behind and moving southwestward on Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is adjusted southward at days 3 to 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Although the deterministic models are in better agreement this cycle, there is still a lot of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members and confidence in the track forecast remains fairly low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.6N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-10 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD... ...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 28.6, -42.6 with movement S at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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