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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 59
2018-10-11 04:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110249 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 The overall cloud pattern of Leslie has become somewhat better organized over the past several hours with increasing convection in the central dense overcast and tighter banding features. A blend of the subjective Dvorak and microwave estimates suggest an initial wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory. Satellite fixes indicate that Leslie has turned toward the east- northeast and is moving faster at about 10 kt. The track forecast really hinges on whether Leslie gets accelerated in southwesterly flow ahead of an eastern Atlantic trough or gets dropped by that trough and turns southwestward around a new subtropical ridge. Sadly, the forecast agreement from the previous advisory has disintegrated, with all of the GFS-based guidance now indicating a track more toward Europe, while the ECMWF/UKMET send Leslie in the exact opposite direction toward the east-central Atlantic. I clearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast tonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest guidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over 2000 miles at day 5. Furthermore, the corrected-consensus guidance is closer to the GFS guidance, which is way to the northeast of the previous forecast. The new forecast will somewhat reflect the latest guidance, showing an adjustment to the east, but is still hundreds of miles to the southwest of the latest model consensus. Obviously this is a zero-confidence forecast tonight. Marginally warm waters and moderate shear could support additional strengthening of Leslie during the next day or two, although the guidance is generally lower than yesterday. By Saturday, colder ocean waters, higher shear and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause Leslie to weaken. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. By Monday, Leslie, whether it follows the forecast track or not, will likely be struggling to produce convection or have already transitioned into an extratropical low. Thus the 5 day point shows post-tropical status, perhaps optimistically, but this seems like the most likely option for now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 27.9N 41.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 29.9N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 31.3N 30.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 32.3N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 32.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 29.5N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 27.5N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-11 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 27.9, -41.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 59
2018-10-11 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 110248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 41.1W ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening forecast over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2018-10-11 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 110248 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 59
2018-10-11 04:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110248 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 41.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 41.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 41.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.3N 30.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.3N 25.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 20.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.5N 20.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 27.5N 25.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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