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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-11 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 28.4, -40.1 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 60

2018-10-11 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 110848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 40.1W ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 40.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower southeastward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 60

2018-10-11 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 110848 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 60

2018-10-11 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110848 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 40.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 40.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 40.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.3N 37.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.1N 27.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.7N 22.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.3N 18.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 19.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 24.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 40.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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