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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 63
2018-10-12 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Satellite images indicate that Leslie has continued to strengthen. A small eye has occasionally been apparent, although it has recently become obscured by clouds. ASCAT data showed peak winds of 75 kt earlier, and given the low bias of that instrument at those wind speeds, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt. Leslie should begin to weaken in about 24 hours as the hurricane encounters cool waters and a higher-shear environment. Intensity guidance is tightly clustered around the previous NHC prediction, and little change is made in the new advisory. By 72 hours, a combination of very dry air aloft, waters near 23.5C, and high shear should cause Leslie to lose convection and transition into a post-tropical cyclone. Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/23 kt. The hurricane should move rapidly in that general direction for the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough, then bend eastward and southward as the main steering mechanism switches to the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is still a large guidance spread, over 700 miles at day 3, but the main change to report is that more of the models are continuing the east-northeastward track longer, possibly due to Leslie becoming a stronger system. The official forecast is shifted to the east, but is still well to the southwest of the model consensus, ironically similar to last night's forecast. Leslie is a fairly large tropical cyclone and the forecast wind radii encompass Madeira Island within 36 hours. Consequently, a tropical storm warning has been issued for that island. It is the first known tropical storm warning for that place, and there are no known tropical storms in the historical record anywhere within 100 miles of that island, with the closest being Vince of 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 30.9N 33.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 32.1N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 33.3N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 34.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 33.5N 15.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 15.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 16/0000Z 29.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 28.0N 24.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-12 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MADEIRA ISLAND DUE TO LESLIE... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 30.9, -33.9 with movement ENE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 63
2018-10-12 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120242 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MADEIRA ISLAND DUE TO LESLIE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 33.9W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM WSW OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Portugal has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 33.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 63
2018-10-12 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 120242 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 63
2018-10-12 04:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MADEIRA ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MADEIRA ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 33.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 65SE 65SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 33.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.1N 29.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.3N 23.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N 18.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 15.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 15.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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