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Post-Tropical Cyclone MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-11-22 03:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 220232 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 7 13 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 22 34 42 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 71 55 42 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 4 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 4 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONTA DELGADA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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melissa
Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-21 22:07:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 20:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 21:03:45 GMT
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melissa
Tropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 14
2013-11-21 21:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013 ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 32.1W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MELISSA WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WESTERN AZORES LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MELISSA IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-21 16:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON... As of 11:45 AM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of MELISSA was located near 40.1, -34.5 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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melissa
Tropical Storm MELISSA Update Statement
2013-11-21 16:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT64 KNHC 211540 TCUAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 ...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON... SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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