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Subtropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2019-10-12 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 120234 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

2019-10-12 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MELISSA GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... ...COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ON SATURDAY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Melissa was located near 37.7, -68.8 with movement SE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 3

2019-10-12 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 ...MELISSA GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... ...COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ON SATURDAY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 68.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 68.8 West. Melissa is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected on Saturday, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed late Saturday through Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will gradually move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Melissa is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night or early Sunday. Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward over waters up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible across portions of Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket overnight. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coast on Saturday around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 3

2019-10-12 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 810 WTNT24 KNHC 120233 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 180SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..900NE 240SE 540SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.1N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N 58.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.4N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 68.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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