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Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-20 22:07:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 20:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-11-20 21:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 202036 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS WRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED... MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. MELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 37.2N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 39.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 41.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0600Z 42.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/1800Z 43.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z 42.0N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-11-20 21:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 202036 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 5 13 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 17 19 33 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 79 71 66 49 NA NA HURRICANE 2 6 9 10 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 8 9 5 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 35KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 22(22) 12(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-20 21:36:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of MELISSA was located near 37.2, -44.9 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 10
2013-11-20 21:36:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 202036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 ...MELISSA RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 44.9W ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...BUT MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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