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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2021-10-02 04:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 020243 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)

2021-10-02 04:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISORGANIZED VICTOR WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Victor was located near 12.3, -35.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 11

2021-10-02 04:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...DISORGANIZED VICTOR WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 35.3W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 35.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 11

2021-10-02 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020242 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 38.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 40.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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