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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 12

2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.3W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 020842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-10-02 04:46:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020245 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 The structure of Victor this evening continues to degrade with the low-level center becoming decoupled from the mid- to upper-level circulation associated with the deeper convection. While the tropical storm does continue to produce a region of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 C, this activity is organized in a linear band that is now more than 150 n mi northeast of the exposed low-level center as seen on Proxy-Vis satellite imagery. Both ASCAT-B/C clipped the western half of Victor's circulation, showing peak winds of 40 kt on the far edge of the pass. In addition, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have been falling this evening. The latest intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 50 kt this advisory, assuming the scatterometer data missed higher wind values to the northeast of Victor closer to the convection. However, given Victor's current structure, this estimate may still be generous. Now that the low-level cloud swirl is readily apparent on satellite imagery, it is somewhat easier to track Victor this evening, with the estimated motion still west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Because the cyclone is also becoming more vertically shallow, the primarily steering feature will be a large low-level subtropical ridge centered to the north, which should guide Victor on a general west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days at a similar forward motion. The latest track guidance has shifted westward this cycle, likely in response to Victor being a weaker cyclone less coupled to the deep convection. The latest NHC track forecast was also shifted a bit west over the forecast period, staying closer to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA, though it is worth nothing this is still not as far west as the latest GFS or ECMWF runs. While the deep-layer 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear has not been prohibitively strong today (15-20 kt), more substantial mid-level shear underneath the outflow layer (25-30 kt) appears to be responsible for the current disheveled appearance of Victor. This shear is related to a large upper-level cutoff low upstream of the tropical storm. Even though the current shear is not expected to increase much more in the short-term, the mid-level environment over Victor is expected to continue drying as the existing shear will import very dry air upstream into the core of the cyclone. All of the guidance responds to these unfavorable conditions by gradually weakening Victor over the next few days, and the latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a bit more compared to the previous advisory. While pulses of deep convection are likely to continue north of Victor over the next several days, the circulation is expected to gradually lose definition, and the global and high-res regional hurricane models now open up the system into a trough between 72-96 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast now follows suit, showing dissipation by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 12.3N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.6N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 20.6N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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