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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 27.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 27.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Victor could become a hurricane on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 27.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 27.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 26.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.7N 27.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-09-30 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 02:48:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 03:29:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-30 04:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with a large circulation and a complex of convective bands mainly in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at or near 35 kt, as do other objective intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity is still 35 kt, although the most recent ASCAT-A data suggests the possibility that this is a little generous. The center has moved or re-formed a bit to the west during the past several hours, although the longer-term motion still seems to be to the west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Other than the more westerly initial position, there is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so as it is steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By 48 h, the global models forecast the western periphery of the ridge to get eroded by to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward at that time, followed by a northward turn by the end of the forecast period. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. The new forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope and lies very close to the various consensus models. For the next 36-48 h, Victor is expected to remain in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening cannot be ruled out if the storm develops a better defined inner core. Based on a steady strengthening scenario, the new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, taking Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 h with a peak intensity of 70 kt in 48 h. After that time, the aforementioned upper-level low is expected to cause significant shear over Victor while the cyclone moves into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken, and it is possible Victor could weaken faster than currently forecast after 60 hours. The new official intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 8.4N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 492 FONT15 KNHC 300246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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