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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-30 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 28.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 28.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-09-30 10:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 08:44:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 09:29:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt. Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions. If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 8.7N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 300842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 8.7, -27.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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