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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-13 22:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 20:45:40 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-13 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 20:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:22:13 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 58
2018-09-13 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 002 FONT11 KNHC 132033 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 2(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) RICHMOND VA 34 4 12(16) 4(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) DANVILLE VA 34 5 30(35) 6(41) 2(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) DANVILLE VA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 7 14(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) 1(28) NORFOLK VA 34 8 15(23) 4(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) 1(30) OCEANA NAS VA 34 8 16(24) 4(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ELIZABETH CTY 34 36 15(51) 3(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) ELIZABETH CTY 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 4 36(40) 8(48) 2(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) GREENSBORO NC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 26 43(69) 4(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) RALEIGH NC 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 61 18(79) 2(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ROCKY MT NC 50 2 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 70 25(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FAYETTEVILLE 50 4 51(55) 7(62) X(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X 21(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 31(34) 11(45) 5(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 87 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CHERRY PT NC 64 32 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 65 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 98 X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 78 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 67 17(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 92 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 44 31(75) 5(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 90 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 48 34(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) FLORENCE SC 34 17 61(78) 13(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) FLORENCE SC 50 1 29(30) 18(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) FLORENCE SC 64 X 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 32(35) 16(51) 8(59) 6(65) X(65) X(65) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 87 12(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 22 64(86) 4(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) LITTLE RIVER 64 1 50(51) 9(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MYRTLE BEACH 34 76 21(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 12 61(73) 8(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 32(33) 17(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GEORGETOWN SC 34 24 55(79) 10(89) 2(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 29(30) 23(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 38(42) 21(63) 6(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 14(17) 15(32) 8(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 6(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 5(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 58
2018-09-13 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 705 WTNT31 KNHC 132033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 76.2W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from south of South Santee River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that the center of the eye of Florence was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue into Friday. A slow westward to west- southwestward motion is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later tonight, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Friday. A slow motion across portions of eastern and central South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday night. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the eye of Florence reaches the coast, with slow weakening expected after the center moves inland or meanders near the coast. More significant weakening is forecast on Saturday as Florence moves farther inland over central South Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning area. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and southeastern North Carolina through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 58
2018-09-13 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 923 WTNT21 KNHC 132032 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.1N 77.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.7N 76.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 76.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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