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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55
2018-09-13 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 994 FONT11 KNHC 130248 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) RICHMOND VA 34 2 4( 6) 17(23) 4(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) DANVILLE VA 34 1 5( 6) 32(38) 8(46) 6(52) 1(53) 1(54) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 7( 9) 19(28) 5(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) NORFOLK VA 34 3 7(10) 20(30) 5(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 8(11) 19(30) 6(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 29(32) 19(51) 4(55) 4(59) X(59) X(59) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 5( 6) 35(41) 11(52) 7(59) 2(61) X(61) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) RALEIGH NC 34 2 15(17) 49(66) 7(73) 4(77) 1(78) X(78) RALEIGH NC 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 35(38) 34(72) 5(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 69 23(92) 2(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 33(36) 3(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 38(40) 48(88) 6(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 3( 3) 49(52) 11(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) 22(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 5( 6) 28(34) 15(49) 13(62) 2(64) X(64) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) X(13) 1(14) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 25 71(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 1 60(61) 18(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 21(21) 17(38) 1(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) NEW RIVER NC 34 76 23(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 6 82(88) 5(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) NEW RIVER NC 64 1 52(53) 7(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) MOREHEAD CITY 34 70 29(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 4 84(88) 6(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 57(57) 12(69) 2(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) SURF CITY NC 34 14 82(96) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 1 65(66) 28(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SURF CITY NC 64 X 31(31) 44(75) 4(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) WILMINGTON NC 34 7 84(91) 8(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 45(46) 46(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 16(16) 53(69) 5(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) BALD HEAD ISL 34 26 68(94) 5(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 58(60) 31(91) 1(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 26(26) 47(73) 3(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) FLORENCE SC 34 2 11(13) 58(71) 13(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) FLORENCE SC 50 X 1( 1) 26(27) 18(45) 11(56) 1(57) X(57) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 4( 5) 29(34) 19(53) 18(71) 3(74) X(74) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 2(25) 1(26) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 59(62) 33(95) 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 9( 9) 60(69) 9(78) 3(81) 1(82) X(82) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 1( 1) 40(41) 10(51) 3(54) 1(55) X(55) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 62(66) 27(93) 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 11(11) 48(59) 10(69) 5(74) 1(75) X(75) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 29(30) 13(43) 7(50) X(50) X(50) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 18(20) 52(72) 12(84) 4(88) 1(89) X(89) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 18(41) 11(52) 2(54) X(54) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 6(23) 2(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 5( 7) 34(41) 18(59) 14(73) 1(74) 1(75) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 16(30) 4(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 3( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 18(53) 5(58) 1(59) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 14(18) 5(23) X(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 2(21) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 18(45) 7(52) 1(53) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 18(41) 7(48) X(48) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 6(25) 1(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 7(25) 1(26) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 11(22) 4(26) 1(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 5(20) 1(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 55
2018-09-13 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 993 WTNT31 KNHC 130248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches. Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 55
2018-09-13 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 587 WTNT21 KNHC 130247 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 73.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 73.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 73.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.1N 75.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-13 01:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 the center of Florence was located near 31.5, -73.2 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 54A
2018-09-13 01:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 446 WTNT31 KNHC 122354 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 54A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 73.2W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 73.2 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday and Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches. Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina beginning late Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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